Comments on The Road by Cormac Mcarthy
Good scenarios should inform society and help us learn about the future. Through such knowledge, we can take actions that change the future and allow us to avoid the worst outcomes. Science is like good art: Its quality can be partially measured as its ability to profoundly change us.
I recently read The Road by Cormac McCarthy , a dark post-apocalyptic vision of America in the near future. The book is a good read although weak in regards to forest ecology (it is unlikely that a forest fire will occur in the winter, in a snow/rain storm, much less be hot enough to melt pavement).
A movie of the same name will be released this year. The movie trailer implies that civilization's collapse is due to climate change although the book doesn't specify a cause.
Which brings me back to
scenarios
. The Pentagon developed a
scenario
in 2004
nearly as dark
as found in The Road. What then is the purpose of scenarios? Simply to frighten us? Provide fodder for Hollywood entertainment? In an ideal world, every scenario developed by scientists would ultimately be wrong. Why? Because
scenarios should inform society and help us learn about the future. Through such knowledge, we can take actions that change the future and allow us to avoid the worst outcomes. Science is similar art in this regard: Its quality can be partially measured as its ability to profoundly change us.
Or as Sarah Connor implies in Terminator 2 (an even darker scenario yet), "There is no destiny [but the one we choose]".
