Forecasting at Wind Cave National Park
Simulating future climate and the expected ecosystem responses for Wind Cave National Park
Simulating future climate and the expected ecosystem responses for Wind Cave National Park
This collaborative project between NPS, USGS, OSU and CBI, will provide localized, quantitative simulations of future climate at Wind Cave National Park and the expected ecosystem responses to potential future climate scenarios using climate, hydrological, and ecosystem models customized for the park and its vicinity. These simulations will provide the information necessary for the desired quantitative evaluation of the scenarios and management implications derived in the 2009 scenario-planning workshop.
This is a key opportunity, as WICA begins revising its General Management Plan, to include climate change forecasting as a vital set of information for long-term park planning. Interpretive programs will use the project products and convey the knowledge gained about climate change impacts in the northern Great Plains to visitors. CoPI is Amy Symstadt (USGS) and her colleagues at Wind Cave National Park with funding from USGS. At CBI, the project lead is Dominique Bachelet (PI) with support from David King (OSU postdoc), Ken Ferschweiler and David Conklin.
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Executive Summary
Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is ...
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A 2009 workshop piloted the use of scenario planning for NPS natural resource management planning in the face of climate change. Wind Cave National Park (WICA) served as a case study in this workshop. Available information and expert opinion were used to construct a set of plausible, future scenarios. Future strategies were then derived based on common themes that emerged from the scenarios. Workshop participants found the process extremely useful for fostering conversations about natural ...
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Dominique Bachelet, Ph.D.
Senior Climate Change Scientist, Team Lead- Global Change
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Senior Software Architect | Modeler
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David Conklin, Ph.D.
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