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  • Disturbance and climate microrefugia mediate tree range shifts during climate change
    Context Many tree species will shift their distribution as the climate continues to change. To assess species’ range changes, modeling efforts often rely on climatic predictors, sometimes incorporating biotic interactions (e.g. competition or facilitation), but without integrating topographic complexity or the dynamics of disturbance and forest succession. Objectives We investigated the role of ‘safe islands’ of establishment (‘‘microrefugia’’) in ...
  • Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?
    Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as ...
  • Chaparral Landscape Conversion in Southern California
    The low-elevation chaparral shrublands of southern California have long been occupied and modified by humans, but the magnitude and extent of human impact has dramatically increased since the early 1900s. As population growth started to boom in the 1940s, the primary form of habitat conversion transitioned from agriculture to urban and residential development. Now, urban growth is the primary contributor ...
  • Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States
    Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy and management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation and fire activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit fire behavior in different places and times, but most fire-climate analyses are conducted across ...
  • Trends and drivers of fire activity vary across California aridland ecosystems
    Fire activity has increased in western US aridland ecosystems due to increased human-caused ignitions and the expansion of flammable exotic grasses. Because many desert plants are not adapted to fire, increased fire activity may have long-lasting ecological impacts on native vegetation and the wildlife that depend on it. Given the heterogeneity across aridland ecosystems, it is important to understand how ...
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