Future climate, vegetation, fire, and water over North America, results from MC1

Dr. Raymond Drapek, a researcher at the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station in Corvallis Oregon described the downscaling of climate for nine future scenarios and the subsequent results of running the MC1 Dynamic Vegetation Model on those scenarios. The target grid is a 5.0 arc-minute (or approximately 8km) grid that covers Canada and the USA (excluding Hawaii).  The future scenarios include a 3x3 combination of three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three carbon emission scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). GCM’s used include: MIROC 3.2 medres, HadCM3, and CSIRO Mk3.0. SRES scenarios included: A2, A1B, and B1. An anomaly (or “delta”) approach was used to do the downscaling. Output variables include various carbon pools and fluxes, fire variables, leaf area index, potential vegetation classes, and various water cycle variables. All of the data are available for downloading and maps of the data can be obtained from Data Basin.

Senior Conservation Scientist, Team Lead- Planning & Management
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