This paper represents a collaboration by conservation practitioners, ecologists, and climate change scientists to provide specific guidance on local and regional adaptation strategies to climate change for conservation planning and restoration activities.  Our geographic focus is the Willamette Valley-Puget Trough-Georgia Basin (WPG) ecoregion, comprised of valley lowlands formerly dominated by now-threatened prairies and oak savannas. We review climate model strengths and limitations, and summarize climate change projections and potential impacts on WPG prairies and oak savannas. We identify a set of six climate-smart strategies that do not require abandoning past management approaches but rather reorienting them towards a dynamic and uncertain future. These strategies focus on linking local and regional landscape characteristics to the emerging needs of species, including potentially novel species assemblages, so that prairies and savannas are maintained in locations and conditions that remain well-suited to their persistence. At the regional scale, planning should use the full range of biological and environmental variability. At the local scale, habitat heterogeneity can be used to support species persistence by identifying key refugia. Climate change may marginalize sites currently used for agriculture and forestry, which may become good candidates for restoration. Native grasslands may increasingly provide ecosystem services that may support broader societal needs exacerbated by climate change. Judicious monitoring can help identify biological thresholds and restoration opportunities. To prepare for both future challenges and opportunities brought about by climate change, land managers must incorporate climate change projections and uncertainties into their long-term planning.

CBI will develop and apply a forest management decision-support system (DSS) for forest resilience planning in the southern Sierra Nevada that integrates the latest science on how vegetation, terrain, climate, and weather interact to influence fire risks and forest resilience. The interdisciplinary team led by CBI includes ecological modelers, forest ecologists, fire scientists, physicists, and statisticians. The core of the DSS will be a Forest Resilience Model built using EEMS (Ecosystem Evaluation Modeling System; Sheehan and Gough 2016). The DSS will be tested, refined, and applied to resilience planning in that portion of the modeling region of greatest concern to the interagency Sequoia Regional Partnership, which is working to restore ecologically resilient conditions in and near Sequoia National Forest and Sequoia-Kings Canyon National Park.

The resilience model evaluates forest resilience to fire, drought, and other factors based on landscape conditions. The DSS will allow managers to simulate fuel-reduction treatments, evaluate their effects on a range of risks and resources (e.g., fire, sequoias, fisher habitat), project the impacts into the future, and assess levels of uncertainty.  The DSS and component models will help managers understand how, in concert with terrain and weather, vegetation structure influences fire behavior and forest resilience. Importantly, the DSS will for the first time consider how fire-atmosphere coupling affects fire in models to support forest planning. This will apply how vegetation structure influences fire via both fuel arrangements and air flows, and thus more accurately reflect the full picture of how vegetation treatments may affect fire and fire effects on the landscape.

The DSS will be further refined and applied to resilience planning by the Sequoia Regional Partnership, whose primary focus is reducing fire risks to giant sequoia groves, fishers, and human communities.  

External Team members include: Joe Werne (NorthWest Research Associates NWRA), Christopher Wikle (Department of Statistics, University of Missouri) and David Marvin (SALO Science).   

Map of project study area.

The Forest Treatment Planner was developed to provide forest managers a platform for exploring the potential consequences of different forest management alternatives in both the short and long-term, examine the resource-based trade-offs inherent in any proposed vegetation management action, and clearly substantiate the rationale behind management planning. Originally envisioned as a means to help balance fisher habitat conservation with fuel reduction efforts, the Treatment Planner provides a dynamic link between GIS, the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) modeling software, and any resource model (e.g. habitat, hydrology, fuel, economic) that uses the EEMS (Environmental Evaluation Modeling System) modeling environment. As such, the Treatment Planner is not a model per-se, but a system of communication between existing software that, when used together, can facilitate spatially-explicit comparisons and project refinement. By exporting an FVS output directly into the EEMS modeling environment, this framework allows for a transparent evaluation of the impacts to multiple resource values and a straightforward process for communicating these impacts to stakeholders.

The Treatment Planner supports an iterative process of treatment project simulation, adaptive management, and outcomes analysis, the steps in what we refer to as the “4-Box” decision making framework. The 4-Box model is a conceptual representation of a process designed to help predict future landscape conditions based on simulated management actions and change over time (see Figure).  In this process, the forest manager first examines the current conditions of the landscape through the lens of a particular question or management objective (e.g., where is there a need for protection or restoration?). They can then explore the predicted effects of various simulated management alternatives (e.g., thin from above, or thin from below), to see how they would affect the stand structure (e.g., stand density, basal area, and average DBH) over time, both immediately and into the future. Finally, the manager can examine how those new conditions would then affect a particular phenomenon of interest such as, severe fire risk, or wildlife habitat suitability. This process is then repeated under a different set of treatment options (scenarios) to inform the development of an effective management strategy.

 

Figure 1. The 4-Box model represents a process for evaluating future conditions based on simulated treatments and change over time.

You can check out the detailed steps to use the treatment planner using the document on the file tab. The relevant code for the treatment planner is available at github, click here to download.

CBI has designed and launched a new Data Basin Gateway (Atlas) for the Wildlife Conservation Society Canada focusing on the Yukon Territory to assist WCS Canada researchers and their conservation partners in the region to develop effective protection of wildlife and plants being impacted by a host of environmental stressors, with special emphasis on climate change. In addition to the branded and curated gateway with relevant datasets, we have co-produced a customized application for stakeholders to view and download  species distribution models (SDM) for 66 endemic plants  designed to predict future changes in their distribution due to climate change. The Atlas houses relevant datasets for conservation planning in the climate-sensitive Yukon region and the tool houses the SDMs, which in combination provide powerful resources for WCS Canada and its partners to effectively plan for resilience.

An example of a map created in the WCS Yukon Data Basin Atlas showing First Nation Territories overlaid on Ross river breeding bird habitat suitability layer

The Yukon Spatial data tool showing projected climate refugia for a Inuvialuit Planning region in the Yukon

Algerian sea lavender (Limonium ramosissimum) and European sea lavender (Limonium duriusculum) are invasive, nonnative perennial plants known to invade salt marsh and upland transitional habitats in coastal California in addition to disturbed inland habitats.  While striking in appearance, these two species cause angst among coastal land managers and biologists when detected in salt marsh habitat in San Diego, California.  These two species are difficult to eradicate and capable of invading and densely occupying tidal marsh habitat.  If left unmanaged these species can displace native vegetation causing loss of breeding and foraging habitat for the endangered Belding’s savannah sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis beldingi) and extirpating local populations of the endangered salt marsh bird’s beak (Chloropyron maritimum ssp. maritimum).

In 2021, CBI received funding from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service Coastal Program and the San Diego National Wildlife Refuge Complex to determine the distribution of Algerian and European sea lavender and initiate a control program to eliminate these species from San Diego Bay to prevent degradation of salt marsh habitat and potential loss of endangered animal and plant populations.  Project partners include the California Department of Parks and Recreation, Port of San Diego, United States Department of the Navy, and the San Diego Bay National Wildlife Refuges.

Please see this Project Update from June 24, 2022!

This project is in partnership with the California Department of Transportation.

Conservation Biology Institute is supporting the Spatial Informatics Group – Natural Assets Laboratory (SIG-NAL) on a multi-year Regional Wildlife Mitigation Program (RWMP) in Santa Barbara county that is funded by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation. Specifically, CBI in partnership with SIG-NAL will develop and propose a fire-resistant buffer or “greenbelt” area in strategic locations within the program area to create wildfire resilient green space, working lands, and habitats. Program outcomes will also provide numerous co-benefits that support watershed and coastal ecological health using a suite of tools including:

The RWMP is designed to assess hazard, exposure and vulnerability and equitably reduce wildfire hazard across the Santa Barbara front country. The program goals are to decrease the risk of wildfire impacts to structures and infrastructure, promote wildfire resilient green space, working lands, and habitats, and develop community capacity to adapt and recover from the shocks of natural disasters. The Program is divided into three primary Resilience Domains: the Landscape Resilience Domain, the Built Environment Resilience Domain, and the Community Resilient Domain. Each domain will work collaboratively to foster resilience and build adaptive capacity that will allow the community to prepare, respond and recover from the shock of large wildfires. More details can be found at this link: https://rwmpsantabarbara.org/.

Conservation Biology Institute and the Resource Conservation District of the Santa Monica Mountains are working in partnership with local land management agencies and communities to increase wildfire resilience in the Santa Monica Mountains region. The Program has the following tasks:

Raising awareness about wildfire risk in the local communities

Helping homeowners prepare for wildfire

Mapping and planning the control of flammable invasive weeds in the Woolsey Fire footprint

Modeling and research to inform planning and decision making

The Santa Monica Mountains Woolsey Fire Recovery and Adaptation Program is funded by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation.

CBI is supporting the U.S. Forest Service (Region 8) in its efforts toward shared forest stewardship activities. Region 8 contains approximately 244 million acres of forestland, most of which (87%) is privately owned.  The Forest Service manages around 5% of the southern forests within 14 National Forests and two Special Units with other public forests make up the remaining 8%.  Because of the mixed ownership, close collaboration and shared stewardship is of paramount importance.

CBI has created a customized and curated Data Basin Gateway for the U.S. Forest Service (usfssouth.databasin.org) that supports forest stewardship organizations to access data and information to advance collaborative forest management planning. To demonstrate how to use this framework, a pilot state (North Carolina) was chosen (nc.usfssouth.databasin.org). This gateway uses the “All Lands Strategy” concept to showcase example workflows to facilitate more effective forest management and monitoring across North Carolina. CBI and the North Carolina Shared Stewardship team created supporting training materials is the form of video tutorials and how to materials.

CBI worked closely with the Natural Resource Defense Council (NRDC) to integrate relevant spatial datasets to map areas of high value from the standpoint of carbon storage and sequestration, terrestrial ecological value, and aquatic value in support of several NRDC programs, including their 30X30 campaign to protect 30% of nature in the nation by 2030. Click here to learn more about the 30×30 initiative.

Using CBI’s online modeling software called Environmental Evaluation Modeling System (or EEMS), team members were able to construct, review, and modify the models in a rigorous and highly transparent fashion from their individual remote locations. The resulting “living” models can then be used alone or together and in combination with other spatial data (e.g., existing protected areas) to add further context and insight using Data Basin. Data Basin and EEMS were effectively used to help guide NRDC’s important conservation mission.

In 2006, the Micronesia Challenge began as a commitment by the Republic of Palau, Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, the Federated State of Micronesia, and the Republic of the Marshall Islands to preserve the marine and terrestrial resources crucial to the survival of the Pacific traditions, cultures, and livelihoods. The overall goal of the initial Micronesia Challenge was to effectively conserve at least 30% of the near-shore marine resources and 20% of the terrestrial resources across Micronesia by 2020.

During the 24th Micronesia Island Forum in 2019, the regional leadership recognized the success of the first 15 years of the Micronesia Challenge and endorsed the new Micronesia Challenge 2030 goals to effectively manage 50% of the marine resources and 30% of terrestrial resources by 2030.

In 2016, the USFS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) team, regional partners and CBI developed the Micronesia Challenge Regional Terrestrial Monitoring Initiative tool (mcterrestrialmeasures.org) to allow users to visualize the spatial data from the Micronesia Challenge monitoring effort by regional framework indicator(s) that measure the status of managed conservation areas set aside under the program. The first version of the tool included forest data collected between 2003 and 2018 and determined the status and trends in forest area, forest health, understory vegetation, biomass, and carbon storage.

In this new phase of work, the Terrestrial Measure Initiative tool will be updated with the most recent data and information. The team also plans to develop a webinar presentation to communicate with local stakeholders and others about the tool and the ongoing success of the Micronesia Challenge.