The purpose of this research is to better conserve biodiversity by improving land allocation modeling software. Here we introduce a planning support framework designed to be understood by and useful to land managers, stakeholders, and other decision-makers. With understanding comes trust and engagement, which often yield better implementation of model results. To do this, we break from traditional software such as Zonation and Marxan with Zones to prototype software that instead first asks the project team and stakeholders to make a straightforward multi-criteria decision tree used for traditional site evaluation analyses. The results can be used as is or fed into an algorithm for identifying a land allocation solution that is efficient in meeting several objectives including maximizing habitat representation, connectivity, and adjacency at a set cost budget. We tested the framework in five pilot regions and share the lessons learned from each, with a detailed description and evaluation of the fifth (in the central Sierra Nevada mountains of California) where the software effectively met the multiple objectives, for multiple zones (Restoration, Innovation, and Observation Zones). The framework is sufficiently general that it can be applied to a wide range of land use planning efforts.
This article was chosen as one of the Editor’s Choice Articles of Section “Landscape Ecology” in 2020 and 2021. https://www.mdpi.com/about/announcements/4677
Sagebrush ecosystems have endured fragmentation and degradation from multiple disturbances. Climate change poses an additional threat that can exacerbate current stresses. Web-based climate applications can provide information to help land managers prepare for challenges. To develop useful and usable tools for land managers’ needs, the collaboration of scientist, web tool developer, and user is needed. Climate scientists and web tool developers at Conservation Biology Institute (CBI) worked with Oregon and Idaho Bureau of Land Management (BLM) sagebrush land managers assessing managers’ needs and defining criteria for useful and usable web-based climate applications. During phone interviews, land managers evaluated a series of climate related web applications and provided insight on how future applications can best meet their needs. They identified climate variables associated with their management activities, such as the seasonality of precipitation and temperature. They provided feedback about website accessibility, terminology, climate model description, spatial and temporal scale appropriateness, graphics effectiveness, and general content credibility and consistency. Managers are interested in changes in climate, but also in climate change impacts, such as vegetation shifts. Managers need seasonal and multiannual weather forecasts for routine activities and 10–20-yr climate projections for planning exercises, but currently an information gap exists between available weather forecasts (#12 months) and climate projections (30-yr averages). It was also found that scientific jargon contributes to misunderstandings and misinterpretation of climate information, and this study confirmed the need for better climate science education, through enhanced explanation and collaborative efforts that promote understanding and use of existing web applications.
The MC2 model projects an overall increase in carbon capture in conterminous United States during the 21st century while also simulating a rise in fire causing much carbon loss. Carbon sequestration in soils is critical to prevent carbon losses from future disturbances, and we show that natural ecosystems store more carbon belowground than managed systems do. Natural and human-caused disturbances affect soil processes that shape ecosystem recovery and competitive interactions between native, exotics, and climate refugees. Tomorrow’s carbon budgets will depend on how land use, natural disturbances, and climate variability will interact and affect the balance between carbon capture and release.
This book chapter titled “Tryst with Lantana camara” is included in the book Transcending Boundaries: Reflecting on twenty years of action and research at ATREE” and was co-written by CBI’s Chief Project Officer Dr. Gladwin Joseph. Dr. Joseph also serves as an adjunct senior fellow at ATREE (Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment), an India based non-profit working to conserve India’s biodiversity.
The Anthropocene presents society with a super wicked problem comprised of multiple contingent and conflicting issues driven by a complex array of change agents. Super wicked problems cannot be adequately addressed using siloed decision-making approaches developed by hierarchical institutions using science that is compartmentalized by discipline. Adaptive solutions will rest on human ingenuity that fosters transformation towards sustainability. To successfully achieve these objectives, conservation and natural resource practitioners need a paradigm that transcends single-institution interests and decision-making processes. We propose a platform for an emerging and evolutionary step change in sustainability planning: landscape conservation design (LCD). We use existing governance and adaptation planning principles to develop an iterative, flexible innovation systems framework—the “iCASS Platform.” It consists of nine principles and five attributes—innovation, convening stakeholders, assessing current and plausible future landscape conditions, spatial design, and strategy design. The principles are organized around four cornerstones of innovation: people, purpose, process, and product. The iCASS Platform can facilitate LCD via processes that aim to create and empower social networks, foster stakeholder involvement, engender co-production and cross-pollination of knowledge, and provide multiple opportunities for deliberation, transparency, and collaborative decision-making. Our intention is to pivot from single-institution, siloed assessment and planning to stakeholder-driven, participatory design, leading to collaborative decision-making and extensive landscape conservation.
Mediterranean-climate natural systems have high ecological value, yet the extent of their cover has diminished greatly due to changes in land use. Other stressors, ranging from intense short- term disturbances such as wildfire to more gradual events such as extended drought and continuous pressures including competition with invasive species, test the resistance and resilience of community composition and structure. Data from long-term monitoring provided an opportunity to evaluate the responses of three Southern California plant communities (chaparral, coastal sage scrub, and grass- land) to disturbances. We analyzed ten years of point intercept and quadrat data from Orange County to describe trends through time and assess community resistance and resilience. We found that grass- land communities, which were more degraded from the start of our study, were generally resistant to change. Chaparral was also fairly resistant to disturbance, while coastal sage scrub exhibited more variation, with some transects exhibiting more resilience than others. Transects with fewer native shrubs experienced less of a decline in shrub cover during drought than those with dense shrubs. Grasslands had the lowest native diversity. There were increases in native diversity in years with more precipitation that were preceded by dry years. There was a decline in native perennial bunch- grasses during our monitoring. Our analyses demonstrated the resilience of native shrub cover to fire and the susceptibility (low resistance) of dense native shrubs and native grasses to drought and increases in non-native species. We encourage academic ecologists to embrace diverse data sources available for hypothesis testing, especially monitoring efforts associated with regulatory purposes, to advance the goal of understanding long-term dynamics.
The size of the hippocampus, a forebrain structure that processes spatial information, correlates with the need to relocate food caches by passerine birds and with sex-specific patterns of space use in microtine rodents. The influences on hippocampal anatomy of sexual selection within species, and natural selection between species, have not yet been studied in concert, however. Here we report that natural space-use patterns predict hippocampal size within and between two species of kangaroo rats (Dipodomys). Differences in foraging behavior suggest that Merriam’s kangaroo rats (D. merriami) require better spatial abilities than bannertail kangaroo rats (D. spectabilis). Sex-specific differences in mating strategy suggest that males of both species require more spatial ability than females. As predicted, hippocampal size (relative to brain size) is larger in Merriam’s than in bannertail kangaroo rats, and males have larger hippocampi than females in both species. Males of a third species (D. ordii) also have smaller hippocampi than Merriam’s kangaroo rat males, despite being similar to Merriam’s in brain and body size. These results suggest that both natural and sexual selection affect the relative size and perhaps function of mammalian hippocampi. They also reassert that measures of functional subunits of the brain reveal more about brain evolution than measures of total brain size.
The low-elevation chaparral shrublands of southern California have long been occupied and modified by humans, but the magnitude and extent of human impact has dramatically increased since the early 1900s. As population growth started to boom in the 1940s, the primary form of habitat conversion transitioned from agriculture to urban and residential development. Now, urban growth is the primary contributor, directly and indirectly, to loss and fragmentation of chaparral landscapes. Different patterns and arrangements of housing development confer different ecological impacts. We found wide variation in the changing extent and pattern of development across the seven counties in the region. Substantial growth in lower-density exurban development has been associated with high frequency of human-caused ignitions as well as the expansion of highly flammable non-native annual grasses. Combined, increases in fire ignitions and the extent of grassland can lead to a positive feedback cycle in which grass promotes fire and shortens the fire-return interval, ultimately extirpating shrub species that are not adapted to short fire intervals. An overlay of a 1930s vegetation map with maps of contemporary vegetation showed a consistent trend of chaparral decline and conversion to sage scrub or grassland. In addition, those areas type-converted to grassland had the highest fire frequency over the latter part of the twentieth century. Thus, a continuing trend of population growth and urban expansion may continue to threaten the extent and intactness of remaining shrubland dominated landscapes. Interactions among housing development, fire ignitions, non-native grasses, roads, and vehicle emissions make fire prevention a complex endeavor. However, land use planning that targets the root cause of conversion, exurban sprawl, could address all of these threats simultaneously.
*Note: This publication comes from a book chapter from Biology and Conservation of Martens, Sables, and Fishers: A New Synthesis (1st edition).
Conservation and management of Martes populations are increasingly informed by quantitative models that predict habitat suitability and population viability. Recent modeling efforts to support fisher (Martes pennanti) reintroduction plan- ning in the state of Washington (USA) and conservation of an isolated fisher population in the southern Sierra Nevada (California, USA) have integrated re- sults from empirical static habitat models, such as resource-selection functions, with those from dynamic population-viability and vegetation models. Additional methods have been developed to identify habitat linkages with potential impor- tance for maintaining interpopulation dispersal. While such modeling frame- works can be useful in integrating data on species distribution, demography, and vegetation response to disturbance, the associated increased data requirements may also increase uncertainty regarding model projections to different places or times. The costs associated with reintroductions generally justify the use of such models to inform the planning process before substantial resources are commit- ted. Given the challenges posed by increasing human demands on forest ecosys- tems, well-constructed quantitative models can be key tools for enhancing the success of wildlife conservation efforts, as long as model uncertainty is consid- ered explicitly, and model results are used for informing decisions rather than predicting outcomes.
Anthropogenic drivers of global change include rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses and resulting changes in the climate, as well as nitrogen deposition, biotic invasions, altered disturbance regimes, and land-use change. Predicting the effects of global change on terrestrial plant communities is crucial because of the ecosystem services vegetation provides, from climate regulation to forest products. In this paper, we present a framework for detecting vegetation changes and attributing them to global change drivers that incorporates multiple lines of evidence from spatially extensive monitoring networks, distributed experiments, remotely sensed data, and historical records. Based on a literature review, we summarize observed changes and then describe modeling tools that can forecast the impacts of multiple drivers on plant communities in an era of rapid change. Observed responses to changes in temperature, water, nutrients, land use, and disturbance show strong sensitivity of ecosystem productivity and plant population dynamics to water balance and long-lasting effects of disturbance on plant community dynamics. Persistent effects of land-use change and human-altered fire regimes on vegetation can overshadow or interact with climate change impacts. Models forecasting plant community responses to global change incorporate shifting ecological niches, population dynamics, species interactions, spatially explicit disturbance, ecosystem processes, and plant functional responses. Monitoring, experiments, and models evaluating multiple change drivers are needed to detect and predict vegetation changes in response to 21st century global change.