Creating Useful and Useable Climate Tools for Sagebrush Land Management Through Scientist and Manager Collaboration

Brown, M. 2015. Creating Useful and Usable Climate Tools for Sagebrush Land Management Through Scientist and Manager Collaboration, Oregon State University thesis. http://hdl.handle.net/1957/56343

The sagebrush ecosystem, home to numerous plant and animal species including big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) and the endemic greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), has endured fragmentation and degradation of both quantity and quality due to the cumulative and synergistic relationships between an abundance of individual disturbances including grazing, invasive annuals and fire. Climate change may now be an additional threat that poses the greatest risk to these imperiled habitats. Natural resource agencies such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) seek to conserve sagelands through land management activities that ensure the survival of sage-grouse and continuity of the sagebrush biome. Web-based climate tools can help convey climate information that may be necessary for long-term land management, but these tools may not agree with the needs of land managers, may be too complex, or may be misinterpreted. To overcome barriers of user compatibility, the participation of both climate scientists and land managers is necessary during tool development. With the collaboration of Oregon and Idaho BLM sagebrush land managers and climate scientists, this study sought to assess land manager needs and define the criteria for useful and useable climate tools. Using an initial online survey, individual phone interviews with land managers, and a follow-up online survey, a series of land management activities and related climate variables were identified, and several web-based climate tools were assessed. Most managers perform vegetation management through a variety of means including seeding and herbicide application. Such activities are affected by the magnitude and timing of precipitation and temperature, as well as other variables, on seasonal and annual timeframes. For planning purposes land managers also need information on long-term 10-20 year climate trends. The act of listening to the needs of land managers uncovered communication barriers, and provided feedback on existing climate tools emphasizing accessibility, dependability and consistency, clear explanation of terminology, effective visualizations, and relevant spatial and temporal scales to the scope of management activities. We also identified a need for basic information and education on the location of existing climate tools and climate impacts, and a need for near-term forecasting tools that could bridge the gap between weather (≤ 6 months) and climate (≥ 30 years) projections.

Terra Magazine, Oregon State University’s research magazine, featured Brown’s research.

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous US at 30arc sec (~800m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie-forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced since only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western US and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122-126 Pg C while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change.

Climate change adaptation and mitigation require understanding of vegetation response to climate change. Using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we simulate vegetation for the Northwest United States using results from 20 different Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models downscaled using the MACA algorithm. Results were generated for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 under vegetation modeling scenarios with and without fire suppression for a total of 80 model runs for future projections. For analysis, results were aggregated by three subregions: the Western Northwest (WNW), from the crest of the Cascade Mountains west; Northwest Plains and Plateau (NWPP), the non-mountainous areas east of the Cascade Mountains; and Eastern Northwest Mountains (ENWM), the mountainous areas east of the Cascade Mountains. In the WNW, mean fire interval (MFI) averaged over all climate projections decreases by up to 48%, and potential vegetation shifts from conifer to mixed forest under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 with and without fire suppression. In the NWPP MFI averaged over all climate projections decreases by up to 82% without fire suppression and increases by up to 14% with fire suppression resulting in woodier vegetation cover. In the ENWM, MFI averaged across all climate projections decreases by up to 81%, subalpine communities are lost, but conifer forests continue to dominate the subregion in the future.

Context 

Wildfires destroy thousands of buildings every year in the wildland urban interface. However, fire typically only destroys a fraction of the buildings within a given fire perimeter, suggesting more could be done to mitigate risk if we understood how to configure residential landscapes so that both people and buildings could survive fire.

Objectives

Our goal was to understand the relative importance of vegetation, topography and spatial arrangement of buildings on building loss, within the fire’s landscape context.

Methods 

We analyzed two fires: one in San Diego, CA and another in Boulder, CO. We analyzed Google Earth historical imagery to digitize buildings exposed to the fires, a geographic information system to measure some of the explanatory variables, and FRAGSTATS to quantify landscape metrics. Using logistic regression we conducted an exhaustive model search to select the best models.

Results

The type of variables that were important varied across communities. We found complex spatial effects and no single model explained building loss everywhere, but topography and the spatial arrangement of buildings explained most of the variability in building losses. Vegetation connectivity was more important than vegetation type.

Conclusions 

Location and spatial arrangement of buildings affect which buildings burn in a wildfire, which is important for urban planning, building siting, landscape design of future development, and to target fire prevention, fuel reduction, and homeowner education efforts in existing communities. Landscape context of buildings and communities is an important aspect of building loss, and if taken into consideration, could help communities adapt to fire.

Climate change has significant effects on critical ecosystem functions such as carbon and water cycling. Vegetation and especially forest ecosystems play an important role in the carbon and hydrological cycles.Vegetation models that include detailed belowground processes require accurate soil data to decrease uncertainty and increase realism in their simulations. The MC2 DGVM uses three modules to simulate biogeography, biogeochemistry and fire effects, all three of which use soil data either directly or indirectly. This study includes a correlation analysis of the MC2 model to soil depth by comparing a subset of the model’s carbon and hydrological outputs using soil depth data of different scales and qualities. The results show that the model is very sensitive to soil depth in simulations of carbon and hydrological variables, but competing algorithms make the fire module less sensitive to changes in soil depth. Simulated historic evapotranspiration and net primary productivity show the strongest positive correlations (both have correlation coefficients of 0.82). The strongest negative correlation is streamflow (0.82). Ecosystem carbon, vegetation carbon and forest carbon show the next strongest correlations (0.78, 0.74 and 0.74, respectively). Carbon consumed by forest fires and the part of each grid cell burned show only weak negative correlations (0.24 and 0.0013 respectively). In the model, when the water demand is met (deep soil with good water availability), production increases and fuels build up as more litter gets generated, thus increasing the overall fire risk during upcoming dry periods. However, when soil moisture is low, fuels dry and fire risk increases. In conclusion, it is clear climate change impact models need accurate soil depth data to simulate the resilience or vulnerability of ecosystems to future conditions.

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The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is in!uenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

To assess the genetic diversity and phylogeography of the blunt-nosed leopard lizard (Gambelia sila), we sequenced 1,285 base pairs (bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase-b (cyt-b, 682 bp) and cytochrome oxidase III (CO3, 603 bp) genes from 33 individuals representing eight natural populations in central California. Phylogenetic analysis indicated that 17 observed haplotypes are partitioned into two major clades, which correspond geographically to where the lizards were collected. We also conducted a focused analysis of individuals collected from the canyons leading into the Cuyama Valley in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, a geographic area with lizards possibly representing a remnant hybrid (with G. wislizenii) population. All lizards from the Cuyama Valley and adjacent canyons exhibited the mitochondrial haplotype of G. sila and were embedded within one clade. Our morphological analysis placed some leopard lizards collected from Cuyama Valley with true G. sila, whereas some individuals aggregated with G. wislizenii. This finding suggests that the quantitative morphological characteristics often used to distinguish between the two species are fairly labile and may be influenced by prevailing environmental conditions.

Background: Frequent outbreaks of insects and diseases have been recorded in the native forests of western North America during the last few decades, but the distribution of these outbreaks has been far from uniform. In some cases, recent climatic variations may explain some of this spatial variation along with the presence of expansive forests composed of dense, older trees. Forest managers and policy makers would benefit if areas especially prone to disturbance could be recognized so that mitigating actions could be taken.

Methods: We use two ponderosa pine-dominated sites in western Montana, U.S.A. to apply a modeling approach that couples information acquired via remote sensing, soil surveys, and local weather stations to assess where bark beetle outbreaks might first occur and why. Although there was a general downward trend in precipitation for both sites over the period between 1998 and 2010 (slope = −1.3, R2 = 0.08), interannual variability was high. Some years showed large increases followed by sharp decreases. Both sites had similar topography and fire histories, but bark beetle activity occurred earlier (circa 2000 to 2001) and more severely on one site than on the other. The initial canopy density of the two sites was also similar, with leaf area indices ranging between 1.7-2.0 m2·m−2. We wondered if the difference in bark beetle activity was related to soils that were higher in clay content at site I than at site II. To assess this possibility, we applied a process-based stand growth model (3-PG) to analyze the data and evaluate the hypotheses.

Context Many tree species will shift their distribution as the climate continues to change. To assess species’ range changes, modeling efforts often rely on climatic predictors, sometimes incorporating biotic interactions (e.g. competition or facilitation), but without integrating topographic complexity or the dynamics of disturbance and forest succession.

Objectives We investigated the role of ‘safe islands’ of establishment (‘‘microrefugia’’) in conjunction with disturbance and succession, on mediating range shifts.

Methods We simulated eight tree species and multiple disturbances across an artificial landscape designed to highlight variation in topographic complexity. Specifically,we simulated spatially explicit successional changes for a 100-year period of climate warming under different scenarios of disturbance and climate microrefugia.

Results Disturbance regimes play a major role in mediating species range changes. The effects of disturbance range from expediting range contractions for some species to facilitating colonization of new ranges for others. Microrefugia generally had a significant but smaller effect on range changes. The existence of microrefugia could enhance range persistence but implies increased environmental heterogeneity, thereby hampering migration under some disturbance regimes and for species with low dispersal capabilities. Species that gained suitable habitat due to climate change largely depended on the interaction between species life history traits, environmental heterogeneity and disturbance regimes to expand their ranges.

Conclusions Disturbance and microrefugia play a key role in determining forest range shifts during climate change. The study highlights the urgent need of including non-deterministic successional pathways into climate change projections of species distributions.

As species’ geographic ranges and ecosystem functions are altered in response to climate change, there is a need to integrate biodiversity conservation approaches that promote natural adaptation into land use planning. Successful conservation will need to embrace multiple climate adaptation approaches, but to date they have not been conveyed in an integrated way to help support immediate conservation planning and action in the face of inherent spatial uncertainty about future conditions. Instead, these multiple approaches are often conveyed as competing or contradictory alternatives, when in fact, they are complementary. We present a framework that synthesizes six promising spatially explicit adaptation approaches for conserving biodiversity. We provide guidance on implementing these adaptation approaches and include case studies that highlight how biodiversity conservation can be used in planning. We conclude with general guidance on choosing appropriate climate adaptation approaches to amend for conservation planning.