State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

An overview in the presentation is given for the state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) approach to forecasting landscape change, as it is implemented in the software framework ST-Sim. An  STSM is a general and flexible approach that can be applied across a broad range of ecosystems and land management questions. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. We demonstrate the use of STSMs with two examples: one exploring land use and land cover change and its implications for ecosystem carbon storage, and the second considering questions around grazing and fire management on rangelands. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of landscape dynamics.

Note: Due to technical difficulties the recording begins 1 minute into the presentation