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  • The status and challenge of global fire modelling
    Biomass burning impacts vegetation dynamics, biogeochemical cycling, atmospheric chemistry, and climate, with sometimes deleterious socio-economic impacts. Under future climate projections it is often expected that the risk of wildfires will increase. Our ability to predict the magnitude and geographic pattern of future fire impacts rests on our ability to model fire regimes, either using well-founded empirical relationships or process-based models ...
  • Projected major fire and vegetation changes in the Pacific Northwest of the conterminous United States under selected CMIP5 climate futures
    Climate change adaptation and mitigation require understanding of vegetation response to climate change. Using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we simulate vegetation for the Northwest United States using results from 20 different Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models downscaled using the MACA algorithm. Results were generated for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 ...
  • California forests show early indications of both range shifts and local persistence under climate change
    Aim Forest regeneration data provide an early signal of the persistence and migration of tree species, so we investigated whether species shifts due to climate change exhibit a common signal of response or whether changes vary by species.Location California Floristic Province, United States; mediterranean biome.Methods We related Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from 2000−07 for 13 tree ...
  • Averaged 30 year climate change projections mask opportunities for species establishment
    Survival of early life stages is key for population expansion into new locations and for persistence of current populations (Grubb 1977, Harper 1977). Relative to adults, these early life stages are very sensitive to climate fluctuations (Ropert-Coudert et al.2015), which often drive episodic or event-limited regeneration (e.g. pulses) in long-lived plant species (Jackson et al. 2009). Thus, it ...
  • Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous US with land use and variable fire regimes
    The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous US at 30arc sec (~800m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming ...
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