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  • Bioclimatic velocity: the pace of species exposure to climate change
    Aim: To investigate the velocity of species-speci?c exposure to climate change for mid- and late 21st century and develop metrics that quantify exposure to climate change over space and time.Location: California Floristic Province, south-western USA.Methods: Occurrences from presence/absence inventories of eight Californian endemic tree species (Pinus balfouriana [Grev.&Balf.], Pinus coulteri [D.Don], Pinus muricata [D ...
  • Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach
    We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential future changes in species composition and community structure. Our results suggest ...
  • Land Use Planning and Wildfire: Development Policies Influence Future Probability of Housing Loss
    Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or ...
  • Does functional type vulnerability to multiple threats depend on spatial context in Mediterranean-climate regions?
    Aim Conservation efforts in Mediterranean-climate regions are complicated by species’ variability in response to multiple threats. Functional type classifications incorporating life history traits with disturbance response strategies provide a framework for predicting groups of species’ response to fire, but it is unclear whether these classifications will be useful when species are exposed to multiple threats or differ in spatial context ...
  • Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with coupled dynamic species distribution and population models
    Concern over rapid global changes and the potential for interactions among multiple threats are prompting scientists to combine multiple modelling approaches to understand impacts on biodiversity. A relatively recent development is the combination of species distribution models, land-use change predictions, and dynamic population models to predict the relative and combined impacts of climate change, land-use change, and altered disturbance regimes ...
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