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  • A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests
    Greehouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future.  Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions.  Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with ...
  • A platform-independent fuzzy logic modeling framework for environmental decision support
    Fuzzy logic modeling is a useful method for evaluating landscapes for conservation and resource planning and hasbeen successfully used in different types of ecological and environmental studies. A variety of software packageshave been produced to facilitate fuzzy logic modeling, but each is either associated with a specific computer programor does not comprise a complete modeling system. The ...
  • Assessing potential climate change effects on vegetation using a linked model approach
    We developed a process that links the mechanistic power of dynamic global vegetation models with the detailed vegetation dynamics of state-and-transition models to project local vegetation shifts driven by projected climate change. We applied our approach to central Oregon (USA) ecosystems using three climate change scenarios to assess potential future changes in species composition and community structure. Our results suggest ...
  • Averaged 30 year climate change projections mask opportunities for species establishment
    Survival of early life stages is key for population expansion into new locations and for persistence of current populations (Grubb 1977, Harper 1977). Relative to adults, these early life stages are very sensitive to climate fluctuations (Ropert-Coudert et al.2015), which often drive episodic or event-limited regeneration (e.g. pulses) in long-lived plant species (Jackson et al. 2009). Thus, it ...
  • Bioclimatic velocity: the pace of species exposure to climate change
    Aim: To investigate the velocity of species-speci?c exposure to climate change for mid- and late 21st century and develop metrics that quantify exposure to climate change over space and time.Location: California Floristic Province, south-western USA.Methods: Occurrences from presence/absence inventories of eight Californian endemic tree species (Pinus balfouriana [Grev.&Balf.], Pinus coulteri [D.Don], Pinus muricata [D ...
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