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  • Fire, CO2, and climate effects on modeled vegetation and carbon dynamics in western Oregon and Washington
    To develop effective long-term strategies, natural resource managers need to account for the projected effects of climate change as well as the uncertainty inherent in those projec- tions. Vegetation models are one important source of projected climate effects. We explore results and associated uncertainties from the MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade crest ...
  • Chaparral Landscape Conversion in Southern California
    The low-elevation chaparral shrublands of southern California have long been occupied and modified by humans, but the magnitude and extent of human impact has dramatically increased since the early 1900s. As population growth started to boom in the 1940s, the primary form of habitat conversion transitioned from agriculture to urban and residential development. Now, urban growth is the primary contributor ...
  • Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?
    Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as ...
  • The iCASS Platform: Nine principles for landscape conservation design
    The Anthropocene presents society with a super wicked problem comprised of multiple contingent and conflicting issues driven by a complex array of change agents. Super wicked problems cannot be adequately addressed using siloed decision-making approaches developed by hierarchical institutions using science that is compartmentalized by discipline. Adaptive solutions will rest on human ingenuity that fosters transformation towards sustainability. To successfully ...
  • Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States
    Growing human and ecological costs due to increasing wildfire are an urgent concern in policy and management, particularly given projections of worsening fire conditions under climate change. Thus, understanding the relationship between climatic variation and fire activity is a critically important scientific question. Different factors limit fire behavior in different places and times, but most fire-climate analyses are conducted across ...
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