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  • Fire, CO2, and climate effects on modeled vegetation and carbon dynamics in western Oregon and Washington
    To develop effective long-term strategies, natural resource managers need to account for the projected effects of climate change as well as the uncertainty inherent in those projec- tions. Vegetation models are one important source of projected climate effects. We explore results and associated uncertainties from the MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade crest ...
  • Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?
    Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as ...
  • Human Footprint Affects US Carbon Balance More Than Climate Change
    The MC2 model projects an overall increase in carbon capture in conterminous United States during the 21st century while also simulating a rise in fire causing much carbon loss. Carbon sequestration in soils is critical to prevent carbon losses from future disturbances, and we show that natural ecosystems store more carbon belowground than managed systems do. Natural and human-caused disturbances ...
  • Climate change effects on southern California deserts
    Climate change has already affected southern California where regional increases in temperature and vegetation shifts have been observed. While all the CMIP5 temperature projections agree on a substantial level of warming throughout the year, there is fair bit of divergence in the magnitude and seasonality of projected changes in rainfall. While desert plants and animals are generally adapted to extreme ...
  • Projected major fire and vegetation changes in the Pacific Northwest of the conterminous United States under selected CMIP5 climate futures
    Climate change adaptation and mitigation require understanding of vegetation response to climate change. Using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) we simulate vegetation for the Northwest United States using results from 20 different Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models downscaled using the MACA algorithm. Results were generated for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 ...
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