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  • Fire, CO2, and climate effects on modeled vegetation and carbon dynamics in western Oregon and Washington
    To develop effective long-term strategies, natural resource managers need to account for the projected effects of climate change as well as the uncertainty inherent in those projec- tions. Vegetation models are one important source of projected climate effects. We explore results and associated uncertainties from the MC2 Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the Pacific Northwest west of the Cascade crest ...
  • Mapping future fire probability under climate change: Does vegetation matter?
    Understanding where and how fire patterns may change is critical for management and policy decision-making. To map future fire patterns, statistical correlative models are typically developed, which associate observed fire locations with recent climate maps, and are then applied to maps of future climate projections. A potential source of uncertainty is the common omission of static or dynamic vegetation as ...
  • Human Footprint Affects US Carbon Balance More Than Climate Change
    The MC2 model projects an overall increase in carbon capture in conterminous United States during the 21st century while also simulating a rise in fire causing much carbon loss. Carbon sequestration in soils is critical to prevent carbon losses from future disturbances, and we show that natural ecosystems store more carbon belowground than managed systems do. Natural and human-caused disturbances ...
  • The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: Experimental and analytical protocols
    The important role of fire in regulating vegetation community composition and contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols make it a critical component of dynamic global vegetation models and Earth system models. Over two decades of development, a wide variety of model structures and mechanisms have been designed and incorporated into global fire models, which have been linked to ...
  • A platform-independent fuzzy logic modeling framework for environmental decision support
    Fuzzy logic modeling is a useful method for evaluating landscapes for conservation and resource planning and hasbeen successfully used in different types of ecological and environmental studies. A variety of software packageshave been produced to facilitate fuzzy logic modeling, but each is either associated with a speciļ¬c computer programor does not comprise a complete modeling system. The ...
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